Of all the black box economics available to play around with in South America, perhaps the worst (should that be 'best'?) is the projected revenues that Venezuela expects in any given year from its state-run oil company, PDVSA. Not only are there a mountain of pricing variables, you have the neverending argument about actual production levels in the country, basically revolving around what actually constitutes a barrel of oil. Suffice to say that, if you so wish, you can "prove" that Venezuela is in great shape financially or about to go bankrupt next week just by choosing your own favourite dataset. Thus what is needed by people who don't live in partisanlandia is a fair estimate of how oil revenues are going and, eschewing as much politics as possible, a fair estimate about the state of play in the country's economy as a result.
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