Tuesday, 24 March 2009

Vietnam - medium & long-term prospects remain strong

Singapore-based Ascendas, the co-sponsor of The Economist-hosted Business Roundtable with the Vietnamese Government last week in Hanoi, specializes in selling prepared industrial land to locators and offering solutions for businesses. The Saigon Times Daily talks with Ong Beng Kheong, Ascendas chief executive officer (CEO) in Southeast Asia, over the outlook of the Vietnamese economy. Excerpts:

The Saigon Times Daily: What do you comment on some conflicting arguments raised at the roundtable this year? For example, Justin Wood of Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) said Vietnam’s economic growth in 2009 can only be 0.3% while others gave more optimistic figures. Are you optimistic or pessimistic about Vietnam’s economy in the short run?

moire from this article at Saigon Times

Venezuelas 2009 budget

Of all the black box economics available to play around with in South America, perhaps the worst (should that be 'best'?) is the projected revenues that Venezuela expects in any given year from its state-run oil company, PDVSA. Not only are there a mountain of pricing variables, you have the neverending argument about actual production levels in the country, basically revolving around what actually constitutes a barrel of oil. Suffice to say that, if you so wish, you can "prove" that Venezuela is in great shape financially or about to go bankrupt next week just by choosing your own favourite dataset. Thus what is needed by people who don't live in partisanlandia is a fair estimate of how oil revenues are going and, eschewing as much politics as possible, a fair estimate about the state of play in the country's economy as a result.

More from this article at inca kola news

South America : Copper cartel on the horizon ?

With global copper prices sinking from a 2008 high of $4 per lb, down to todays miserly, $1.25 per lb, it is hardly surprising that the two major copper producing countries in South America are looking at ways to buoy up their operations. Last week, Peruvian president Alan Garcia dropped some strong hints that Peru & Chile should coordinate on copper production , in order to achieve greater control of prices on international markets.

“I believe that as countries with a strong mining presence in the world we must work in a joint manner, because when brotherly countries produce and compete with the same metal, the only thing we achieve is a fall in the price of copper, and we are both losers”, said Garcia

More from this article at MyStockVoice

Friday, 6 March 2009

Emerging market indices that have grown in the past 3 months

MarketWatch has a good report on the progress in emerging market indices the past 3 months. While some of the indices have gone up, I would really be careful of some of those countries. While countries like China and to some extent India and Brazil seems a relatively safe long term bet, given their size and demographics, it is not clear how other countries will fare in the crisis of a lifetime.

Chile and Israel are stable democracies and good rule of law, but given their smaller size it is not clear if they can face a sizable change in global trade patterns. Argentina and South Korea might get into deeper trouble, based on their fragile financial systems as seen in the recent history.

More from this article at The Economics Journal

Vietnam has surpassed China as the world’s fastest-online-game-growing area.

After 20 years reform and opening up, Vietnam, closely following China, has now become the second most favorite investment destination of Taiwan enterprises. Due to Vietnam’s improving economy, MMO gaming population is undergoing an explosive growth.

A recent released report about Vietnam’s Online Games Market forecasts the number of MMO subscribers playing online games to exceed 10 millions by 2011, driven by rising incomes, increasing PC and Internet penetration rates, and a large youth population that are actively seeking out entertainment content. Approximately 50% of the total Vietnamese population is under the age of 25. This age range is known for as being tech savvy, making them high priority demographic for digital entertainment companies. There are approximately 21 million Internet users in Vietnam with an Internet penetration rate of 23.5%. The research also finds that many players were spending an average of 500,000 VND (31$) per month. These consumers are also driving the digital entertainment and online games market with virtual item purchases. The top online game in Vietnam has about 200,000 subscribers.

More from this article at Looters Lounge

Thursday, 5 March 2009

India’s Central Bank May Continue Cutting Rates

India’s central bank indicated it may keep cutting interest rates after economic growth slowed to a five-year low last quarter.

The Reserve Bank of India yesterday reduced the benchmark repurchase rate to a record low of 5 percent from 5.5 percent and the reverse repurchase rate to 3.5 percent from 4 percent, adding it will “maintain ample liquidity in the banking system”.

Governor Duvvuri Subbarao is driving policy rates down to unprecedented lows to revive investment and spur consumption in Asia’s third-largest economy. The $1.2 trillion economy is slowing as exports decline and companies access to funds from overseas and from the stock market is cut off by the global recession.

More from this article at Bloomberg

Total Continues Investments in Emerging Markets

Total SA (NYSE - TOT), France’s largest company, announced the highest annual net profit in French corporate history last week, sounding a rare positive note in todays grim financial meltdown. In 2008 the firm made a profit of €13.9 Bn ($18.0 Bn) thanks to record oil prices in the first half of the year, which helped offset the second half collapse in oil prices.

Profits began to fall in the fourth quarter of 2008 as the credit crunch hit demand, sending crude prices tumbling. Total is now preparing for the future by investing in increased capacity in new fields, especially in Africa & the Middle East, whilst putting the brakes on production in Canada & the North Sea.

More from this article at MyStockVoice

Wednesday, 4 March 2009

Ryanair may charge cattle to use the bog

Budget aerial cattle transporter Ryanair may ask the self-loading cargo to pay for a visit to the loo, chief exec Michael O'Leary suggested today.

He told the BBC: "One thing we have looked at in the past and are looking at again is the possibility of maybe putting a coin slot on the toilet door so that people might actually have to spend a pound to spend a penny in future."

O'Leary insisted this would "not inconvenience passengers travelling without cash", as Reuters puts it, and offered: "I don't think there is anybody in history that has got on board a Ryanair aircraft with less than a pound."

More from this article at The Register

Apple growing overseas but facing challenges

As U.S. demand for personal computers craters, Apple Inc (AAPL.O) is getting a boost from overseas PC sales, where iPods are hugely popular but Macs have not been a major presence.

Although analysts see the international market as fertile ground for Macs, they say the growth momentum may be tough to maintain due to the spreading economic gloom, Mac's higher price point and smaller retail distribution network.

Mac shipments in the December quarter grew 16 percent internationally and a mere 2 percent in the United States. Mac sales made up more than 40 percent of Apple's revenue in fiscal 2008.

More from this article at Reuters

Oil Gains on Speculation China Will Boost Stimulus

Crude oil rose for a second day on speculation China will widen efforts to bolster economic growth, boosting demand from the world’s second-largest energy consumer.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao may announce new stimulus measures tomorrow, adding to a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) spending plan, an official said. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, due to meet again on March 15, probably cut output by 2.7 percent in February as producers tried to stem price declines, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

“Most of the firepower behind the expansive fiscal and monetary resources now being unleashed on a global basis has yet to fully work its way through the system,” said Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global Ltd. in Connecticut. “Nervousness ahead of the OPEC meeting had to be constructive and should remain so.”

More from this article at Bloomberg

Tuesday, 3 March 2009

Gazprom Third-Quarter Net Rises 16% on Record Prices

Russia's Gazprom on Tuesday posted a 16.4 percent rise in third-quarter net profit to 131.7 billion roubles ($3.64 bln), supported by higher prices but below analysts' expectations.

Gazprom, Russia's gas export monopoly, said its sales calculated under the International Accounting Standards rose to 829.7 billion roubles from 516.2 billion in the same period of 2007.

"This increase was primarily due to the increase of the volume of gas sold to Far Abroad countries and higher gas prices in all geographical segments," Gazprom said in a statement.

more from this article at Reuters

China Economy May Recover in First Half

China’s economy, the world’s third biggest, is “very likely” to recover in the first half of 2009, central bank Vice Governor Su Ning said in Beijing.

“We’re very confident,” Su told reporters at the annual meeting of the Chinese legislature’s advisory body today.

China is trying to reverse an economic slide that has cost the jobs of 20 million migrant workers after exports collapsed because of the global recession. The government may double a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) package of stimulus spending through 2010, according to Standard Chartered Bank Plc.

More from thiis article at Bloomberg

Toyota in desperate plea for $2 billion

The loan-financing arm of Toyota, Japan’s biggest industrial giant, is understood to have approached a state-backed fund for as much as $2 billion in emergency loans.

A request for Government funding from the Japanese giant is expected to trigger a deluge of other demands for capital by other of the country's struggling industrial companies.

A spokesperson for the Government-backed Japan Bank for International Co-operation (JBIC) said that they were evaluating “multiple” funding requests from across corporate Japan.

More from this article at Times Online