Tuesday, 24 March 2009

Vietnam - medium & long-term prospects remain strong

Singapore-based Ascendas, the co-sponsor of The Economist-hosted Business Roundtable with the Vietnamese Government last week in Hanoi, specializes in selling prepared industrial land to locators and offering solutions for businesses. The Saigon Times Daily talks with Ong Beng Kheong, Ascendas chief executive officer (CEO) in Southeast Asia, over the outlook of the Vietnamese economy. Excerpts:

The Saigon Times Daily: What do you comment on some conflicting arguments raised at the roundtable this year? For example, Justin Wood of Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) said Vietnam’s economic growth in 2009 can only be 0.3% while others gave more optimistic figures. Are you optimistic or pessimistic about Vietnam’s economy in the short run?

moire from this article at Saigon Times

Venezuelas 2009 budget

Of all the black box economics available to play around with in South America, perhaps the worst (should that be 'best'?) is the projected revenues that Venezuela expects in any given year from its state-run oil company, PDVSA. Not only are there a mountain of pricing variables, you have the neverending argument about actual production levels in the country, basically revolving around what actually constitutes a barrel of oil. Suffice to say that, if you so wish, you can "prove" that Venezuela is in great shape financially or about to go bankrupt next week just by choosing your own favourite dataset. Thus what is needed by people who don't live in partisanlandia is a fair estimate of how oil revenues are going and, eschewing as much politics as possible, a fair estimate about the state of play in the country's economy as a result.

More from this article at inca kola news

South America : Copper cartel on the horizon ?

With global copper prices sinking from a 2008 high of $4 per lb, down to todays miserly, $1.25 per lb, it is hardly surprising that the two major copper producing countries in South America are looking at ways to buoy up their operations. Last week, Peruvian president Alan Garcia dropped some strong hints that Peru & Chile should coordinate on copper production , in order to achieve greater control of prices on international markets.

“I believe that as countries with a strong mining presence in the world we must work in a joint manner, because when brotherly countries produce and compete with the same metal, the only thing we achieve is a fall in the price of copper, and we are both losers”, said Garcia

More from this article at MyStockVoice

Friday, 6 March 2009

Emerging market indices that have grown in the past 3 months

MarketWatch has a good report on the progress in emerging market indices the past 3 months. While some of the indices have gone up, I would really be careful of some of those countries. While countries like China and to some extent India and Brazil seems a relatively safe long term bet, given their size and demographics, it is not clear how other countries will fare in the crisis of a lifetime.

Chile and Israel are stable democracies and good rule of law, but given their smaller size it is not clear if they can face a sizable change in global trade patterns. Argentina and South Korea might get into deeper trouble, based on their fragile financial systems as seen in the recent history.

More from this article at The Economics Journal

Vietnam has surpassed China as the world’s fastest-online-game-growing area.

After 20 years reform and opening up, Vietnam, closely following China, has now become the second most favorite investment destination of Taiwan enterprises. Due to Vietnam’s improving economy, MMO gaming population is undergoing an explosive growth.

A recent released report about Vietnam’s Online Games Market forecasts the number of MMO subscribers playing online games to exceed 10 millions by 2011, driven by rising incomes, increasing PC and Internet penetration rates, and a large youth population that are actively seeking out entertainment content. Approximately 50% of the total Vietnamese population is under the age of 25. This age range is known for as being tech savvy, making them high priority demographic for digital entertainment companies. There are approximately 21 million Internet users in Vietnam with an Internet penetration rate of 23.5%. The research also finds that many players were spending an average of 500,000 VND (31$) per month. These consumers are also driving the digital entertainment and online games market with virtual item purchases. The top online game in Vietnam has about 200,000 subscribers.

More from this article at Looters Lounge

Thursday, 5 March 2009

India’s Central Bank May Continue Cutting Rates

India’s central bank indicated it may keep cutting interest rates after economic growth slowed to a five-year low last quarter.

The Reserve Bank of India yesterday reduced the benchmark repurchase rate to a record low of 5 percent from 5.5 percent and the reverse repurchase rate to 3.5 percent from 4 percent, adding it will “maintain ample liquidity in the banking system”.

Governor Duvvuri Subbarao is driving policy rates down to unprecedented lows to revive investment and spur consumption in Asia’s third-largest economy. The $1.2 trillion economy is slowing as exports decline and companies access to funds from overseas and from the stock market is cut off by the global recession.

More from this article at Bloomberg

Total Continues Investments in Emerging Markets

Total SA (NYSE - TOT), France’s largest company, announced the highest annual net profit in French corporate history last week, sounding a rare positive note in todays grim financial meltdown. In 2008 the firm made a profit of €13.9 Bn ($18.0 Bn) thanks to record oil prices in the first half of the year, which helped offset the second half collapse in oil prices.

Profits began to fall in the fourth quarter of 2008 as the credit crunch hit demand, sending crude prices tumbling. Total is now preparing for the future by investing in increased capacity in new fields, especially in Africa & the Middle East, whilst putting the brakes on production in Canada & the North Sea.

More from this article at MyStockVoice

Wednesday, 4 March 2009

Ryanair may charge cattle to use the bog

Budget aerial cattle transporter Ryanair may ask the self-loading cargo to pay for a visit to the loo, chief exec Michael O'Leary suggested today.

He told the BBC: "One thing we have looked at in the past and are looking at again is the possibility of maybe putting a coin slot on the toilet door so that people might actually have to spend a pound to spend a penny in future."

O'Leary insisted this would "not inconvenience passengers travelling without cash", as Reuters puts it, and offered: "I don't think there is anybody in history that has got on board a Ryanair aircraft with less than a pound."

More from this article at The Register

Apple growing overseas but facing challenges

As U.S. demand for personal computers craters, Apple Inc (AAPL.O) is getting a boost from overseas PC sales, where iPods are hugely popular but Macs have not been a major presence.

Although analysts see the international market as fertile ground for Macs, they say the growth momentum may be tough to maintain due to the spreading economic gloom, Mac's higher price point and smaller retail distribution network.

Mac shipments in the December quarter grew 16 percent internationally and a mere 2 percent in the United States. Mac sales made up more than 40 percent of Apple's revenue in fiscal 2008.

More from this article at Reuters

Oil Gains on Speculation China Will Boost Stimulus

Crude oil rose for a second day on speculation China will widen efforts to bolster economic growth, boosting demand from the world’s second-largest energy consumer.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao may announce new stimulus measures tomorrow, adding to a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) spending plan, an official said. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, due to meet again on March 15, probably cut output by 2.7 percent in February as producers tried to stem price declines, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

“Most of the firepower behind the expansive fiscal and monetary resources now being unleashed on a global basis has yet to fully work its way through the system,” said Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global Ltd. in Connecticut. “Nervousness ahead of the OPEC meeting had to be constructive and should remain so.”

More from this article at Bloomberg

Tuesday, 3 March 2009

Gazprom Third-Quarter Net Rises 16% on Record Prices

Russia's Gazprom on Tuesday posted a 16.4 percent rise in third-quarter net profit to 131.7 billion roubles ($3.64 bln), supported by higher prices but below analysts' expectations.

Gazprom, Russia's gas export monopoly, said its sales calculated under the International Accounting Standards rose to 829.7 billion roubles from 516.2 billion in the same period of 2007.

"This increase was primarily due to the increase of the volume of gas sold to Far Abroad countries and higher gas prices in all geographical segments," Gazprom said in a statement.

more from this article at Reuters

China Economy May Recover in First Half

China’s economy, the world’s third biggest, is “very likely” to recover in the first half of 2009, central bank Vice Governor Su Ning said in Beijing.

“We’re very confident,” Su told reporters at the annual meeting of the Chinese legislature’s advisory body today.

China is trying to reverse an economic slide that has cost the jobs of 20 million migrant workers after exports collapsed because of the global recession. The government may double a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) package of stimulus spending through 2010, according to Standard Chartered Bank Plc.

More from thiis article at Bloomberg

Toyota in desperate plea for $2 billion

The loan-financing arm of Toyota, Japan’s biggest industrial giant, is understood to have approached a state-backed fund for as much as $2 billion in emergency loans.

A request for Government funding from the Japanese giant is expected to trigger a deluge of other demands for capital by other of the country's struggling industrial companies.

A spokesperson for the Government-backed Japan Bank for International Co-operation (JBIC) said that they were evaluating “multiple” funding requests from across corporate Japan.

More from this article at Times Online

Friday, 20 February 2009

India to be Largest WiMAX market in Asia Pacific by 2013

The Economic Times of India, citing a study by US market research firm Strategy Analytics, reports that India will become the largest WiMAX market in the Asia-Pacific by 2013.


That study predicts India's WiMAX subscriber base to reach 14 million by Year 2013 and grow annually at nearly 130%. Furthermore, the study projects initial investment in WiMAX ventures will top $500M in India.

"Eventually, we expect WiMAX growth to be much faster in smaller cities and rural towns. The investment on WiMAX will then go up substantially. WiMAX will not be an alternative to 3G but will be used for overall broadband diffusion in India," said Rahul Gupta, Strategy Analytics manager for emerging market communication service.

More from this article at Wimax.com

Thursday, 19 February 2009

China Mobile interested in Indian mobile market

The worlds largest mobile operator with 457 million subscribers China Mobile is actively interested in operating in India, the world’s fastest growing mobile market. “We are looking at India for our expansion,” Wang Jianzhou, chairman and CEO of China Mobile, told the Business Standard on the sidelines of a press conference at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona.

The Indian mobile market which is thriving even under these harsh economic conditions adds an approximate 10 million subscribers per month, as against China’s addition of 8 million subscribers monthly. The latest report by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India states that India has a teledensity of 33 percent and 347 million mobile subscribers as of December 2008. The market is expected to expand to 500 million subscribers by 2010 - allowing for a lot more room to grow the market.

More from this article at 2.6 Billion

Wednesday, 18 February 2009

the Bear & the Dragon shake hands on $25Bn energy deal

Whilst having previously discussed the Byzantine workings of Russia’s energy players in previous articles & also the direction that China has taken recently in securing strategic reserves, it was only a matter of time befiore the Dragon & the Bear came to an accord together. During a visit to China this week, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin has succeeded in bringing together a massive deal for Russian oil producers in Siberia.

On Tuesday (17/02/09), Russia and China signed an intergovernmental agreement on the construction of a branch of the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) oil pipeline toward China. Under this agreement, Russia will supply 15 million metric tons (300,000 barrels per day) of crude oil annually for 20 years to China, in return China via state owned China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) will extend a total of $25 billion in loans to Russian state-controlled crude producer Rosneft and pipeline operator Transneft at 6% per annum in exchange for the long-term oil supply. Transneft plans to start building a Chinese leg of the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean later this year and to commission it in 2010, Russia’s monopoly pipeline operator said in a statement on Tuesday.

More from this article at MyStockVoice

Gold hits 7-mth high as haven demand spurs ETF buying

Gold firmed to a fresh seven month high in Europe on Wednesday as investors spooked by the outlook for the financial system bought gold and bullion-backed exchange-traded funds as a safe store of value.

Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust, leapt to a record high above 1,000 tonnes on Tuesday as fears of a deepening global recession and the prospect of inflation fuelled buying.

Spot gold hit a high of $973.50, its strongest since July 22, and was quoted at $967.35/968.95 an ounce at 1031 GMT, little changed from $968.35 late in New York on Tuesday.

More from this article at Reuters

Australia better able to weather economic crisis ?

The local economy may continue to perform better than the rest of the world despite forecasts suggesting 2009 will be the worst year since World War II, the Reserve Bank said today.

Australia has benefited from having “more momentum than most comparable economies in the period leading into the crisis,” said RBA assistant governor Malcolm Edey in a speech delivered to the Committee for Economic Development of Australia in Sydney.

“There are reasons to expect that the Australian economy can continue to perform better than its international counterparts in the difficult period that lies ahead,” he said.

Mr Edey highlighted the steep drop in growth forecasts and the “synchronised nature of the downturn” affecting the global economy, together making 2009 shape “up as a very difficult year.”

More from this article at Sydney Morning Herald

Tuesday, 17 February 2009

India poised to relax laws on foreign direct investment

The Indian government could be poised to open the door to foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country, in a move that could have huge ramifications for the ambitions of companies, including Tesco and Wal-Mart, in the burgeoning Indian economy.

Speculation is mounting that a relaxation of FDI rules may be forthcoming after the Indian Ministry of Commerce issued revised guidance on what constitutes a foreign holding in an Indian company.

Under the new guidelines, as long as a company is more than 50 per cent-owned by Indians, the government would consider any investment into that company to be Indian equity, regardless of whether the sector is one in which FDI has been capped, such as multi-brand retail. Current FDI rules only allow single-brand retailers, such as Germany's Metro, to open stores, while multi-brand retailers, such as Tesco and Wal-Mart, are only allowed to deliver supply chain and back-office services.

More from this article at The Independent

Consolidation hits Rainbow Nations telecom sector

Even though merger and acquisitions (M&A) in South Africa were down at least 50% in deal value last year compared with other emerging markets, the telecom sector has seen much activity in the last year, which has also spilled into 2009. A veritable wave of consolidation & a drive towards convergence seems to be the way forward for major players such as Vodacom, Telkom SA & MTN Group.

The largest deal in South Africa was Vodafones (NYSE - VOD) acquisition of a further 15% of Vodacom for R22,5bn ($2.3Bn), bringing control along with atotal holding of 65%, Telkom as part of the deal will divest the remaining 35% to shareholders. Analysts had feared that Vodafone had paid a premium for this stake, however value can be seen in the continued push for consolidation & a genuine effort to move towards converged services. In late December it was announced that the mobile carrier had acquired African network and satellite services firm Gateway Communications for $700 million. The Gateway transaction includes Gateway’s core carrier and business network units, which provide satellite, business and interconnect services to African and multinational companies in 40 countries, but not its broadcasting division.

More from this article at MyStockVoice

Monday, 16 February 2009

Asia’s export economies in free fall

Staggering falls in exports across Asia have shocked economic analysts and ended all claims that the global slump may be nearing its bottom. The IMF's growth forecast for Asia this year is just 2.7 percent—less than a third of the 9 percent growth rate of 2007. The prediction is a full percentage point less than during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.

IMA Asia analyst Richard Martin commented in the Australian: "It's a bit like watching a train wreck in slow motion. North Asia is suffering the biggest collapse in demand since World War II." Westpac bank's Richard Franulovich said that the "speed of the decline embedded in the latest Asia data is on par with the collapse in the US during the 1930s Depression."

More from this article at WSWS.ORG

Chinese raw material companies continue on acquisition trail

Although all the news lately has focussed on Chinalco’s recent financing deal with Rio Tinto, Chinese raw material firms are still looking far & wide for new opportunities, as discussed in our December article : China stocks up on raw materials. Other state owned / controlled corporations are looking at South Africa & South America as well as assets in Australia. As there is flurry of activity & reporting on the Rio Tinto deal, a look at some of the other activities would is warranted.

China has a long history of investing in operations in South America, back in 1992, we saw the first venture outside of mainland China when Capital Steel (now Shougang) acquired the Peruvian state owned iron ore mining concern HierroPeru. This company now operates as Shougang Hierro & it is currently ramping up its expansion activities in the region. At the time the company was the child of Den Xiopeng and its overseas venture was viewed as an experiment to see how smoothly a transition could be made from a closed, planned economy into one with wide-ranging connections to international markets.

More from this article at MyStockVoice

Standard Chartered launches M-banking in Kenya

Standard Chartered has announced the launch of mobile-phone banking (‘mBanking’) in Kenya.
Standard Chartered Bank is the first bank in Kenya to introduce ‘mBanking’ on the USSD (Unstructured Supplementary Service Data) platform to the market. This new product will provide Standard Chartered Bank’s customers with access to banking 24 hours a day, 7 days a week – anywhere in the world, at any time- all through their mobile phone.

Richard Etemesi, the bank’s Chief Executive Officer said that the new development is part of the bank’s efforts to provide alternative delivery channels for their customers.

More from this article at IT News Africa

Iran seals new Turkmen gas deal

Turkmenistan will export 10 billion cubic metres of gas per year from the Bolutun field to Iran, which in turn will help develop the field, under the terms of a new deal struck by the pair.

The two energy powers, whose ties were strained last winter after Turkmenistan halted gas sales to Iran, agreed to boost co-operation during an official visit by Turkmen leader Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov to Tehran over the weekend.

Under the deal, Iranian companies would develop the Bolutun gas field in Turkmenistan and in exchange gas from the field would be exported to the Islamic Republic, Iran's official IRNA news agency said.

More from this article at Upstream Online

Anglo’s Kumba Posts 7.21 Bln Rand Profit on Prices

Anglo American Plc’s Kumba Iron Ore Ltd. unit, the largest African producer of the steelmaking ingredient, posted full-year profit of 7.21 billion rand ($720.4 million), helped by “stronger” iron ore prices and a weaker rand, and said the first-half will be “very challenging.”

Net income climbed from 3.18 billion rand the previous year, the Pretoria, South Africa-based company said in a statement to Johannesburg’s stock exchange today. Diluted earnings-per-share were 22.54 rand, compared with 9.95 rand the previous year, it said.

Kumba said Jan. 20 it would report profit of between 6.8 billion and 7.5 billion rand for the full year, helped by higher iron prices and the rand’s drop against the dollar. The company sells iron ore in dollars and pays wages and other costs mostly in rand.

More from this article at Bloomberg

Brazil´s wireless market is booming as Vivo announces record growth

Brazil’s largest mobile phone company Vivo Participacoes said on Friday its fourth-quarter profit surged nearly ten-fold because of a sharp increase in new users and as it kept costs in check.

The company’s chief executive Roberto Lima said the profit surge in the fourth quarter was due to changes in its subscriber and pre-paid telephony offers and “very rigorous” cost controls, as it renegotiated contracts with suppliers.

Vivo, a joint venture of Portugal Telecom and Spain’s Telefonica, said net income rose to 215.5 million reais ($94.1 million) from 26.2 million reais in the fourth-quarter of 2007.

For all of 2008, Vivo made a profit of 389.7 million reais, the best year since the company was formed in 2003, compared with losses of 99.8 million reais in 2007.

More from this article at Reuters

Sunday, 15 February 2009

China takes small steps toward establishing yuan as regional currency

While cynics scoff at the idea that the yuan could some day become a regional or a global currency, China's efforts to push loans and trade in yuan in Asia suggest it is taking the first, albeit tiny, step in that direction.

The yuan's journey from a controlled, partially convertible currency to a liquid, regional medium of exchange will be a long one, because of the desire of the Beijing government for economic stability.

In addition, Beijing has always been wary of moving too quickly to open up its markets, fearing that such a move might leave its economy vulnerable to sudden shifts in capital.

More from this article at International Herald Tribune

Bolivia's Lithium Quandary

In one of the more remote regions on the planet, high in the Andes, lies the Salar de Uyuni, the famed salt flats stretch across more than 4,000 square miles in Potosi, Bolivia, well known for the fabulous wealth in silver extracted there by the Spanish in colonial times. Now a new age of mining could bring a 21st century El Dorado for the impoverished South American nation, as geologists believe that more than half the world’s reserves of lithium may lie under the salt pans.

Government officials claim that Bolivia possesses the world’s biggest lithium reserves, and they also believe the country is poised to profit from car manufacturers which are driving to develop electric cars that will run on lithium ion batteries.

“Bolivia will become a big producer in six years of batteries,” Luis Alberto Echazu, the minister of mining and metallurgy, said in an interview. He ticked off three companies that he said have expressed interest in investing in the government’s lithium venture: Sumitomo, Mitsubishi and Bollore, a French company.

More from this article at MyStockVoice

Petrobras sets some ambitious targets

AMID all the graphs resembling ski slopes which plot jobs and car sales, the boldness of Petrobras may come as a relief to Brazilians. Last month the state-controlled oil giant published its revised investment plan for the next five years. Its proposed capital spending of $174 billion over this period is bigger than the entire economy of Chile. By 2020, if all goes to plan, Petrobras and its foreign partners will be producing 5.7m barrels of oil and gas per day (see chart), more than half the output of Saudi Arabia. New refineries and gas terminals are planned, as well as drilling rigs (29 of them to be delivered by 2012, with a further 28 arriving by 2017). And all this after the oil price has fallen by $100 a barrel from its peak last year.

More from this article at The Economist